He said, “Oil demand is forecast to grow by six million barrels per day to
around 96.6mb/d on average for the year.
“Similar to the economy, growth in the second half of the year is expected to gain momentum, potentially surpassing 99mb/d in the fourth quarter.
On the supply side, Barkindo said the forecast by the organisation was that non-OPEC supply would grow by an estimated 0.8mb/d in 2021 for an average of 63.7mb/d.
He said, “We appear to be well on the road to recovery, with oil demand growth expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, however, let us be aware
that there are still uncertainties that could entail risks for market stability.
“Firstly, we are not completely out of the danger zone with the pandemic. We have seen in recent days an uptick in the spread of the so-called Delta
Variant, which is highly infectious and could prey upon those sectors of the population who have not yet been vaccinated.”
He, however, noted that OPEC’s early numbers for 2022 indicated a significant imbalance between supply and demand from the second quarter of 2022 onwards.
The OPEC scribe stated that in the second quarter of next year, the forecast was that supply would exceed demand by 5.4mb/d, adding that in the third quarter, it would be by 3.6mb/d and by 2.3mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2022.
“Given all of the painful lessons and sacrifices over the last 16 months, this is a scenario that none of us would like to see materialise,” Barkindo stated.
He therefore called members and non-members of OPEC to begin to plan for the next chapter in the indispensable format that was the Declaration of Corporation process in stabilising the business, beyond April 2022.
